COVID-19 virus SARS-CoV-2

Second Wave Epidemiological Profile in Iran

The evolution of COVID-19 epidemiology throughout the pandemic in Iran between March 1, 2020 and September 12, 2021. The data is expressed as the raw weekly number of reported positive cases. 

Like in the Philippines, the Iranian COVID-19 epidemiology is characterized with steady increase in numbers of reported cases together with increasing magnitude of outbreak peaks. This epidemiological profile is characteristic of countries with a similarly low population exposure to the pathogen, such as the Philippines, Norway or Finland.

During the second outbreak peak of April/May 2021 only 27% of the Iranian population of 84 million was already exposed to the pathogen and began mounting its global immune response. During the last peak on August 22, 2021 it was already 55% of Iranians who became already exposed and resilient through naturally acquired herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 virus. This fraction of the resilient population is still too low to protect the remaining members of the population however. More time is needed and more extensive Iranian population exposure to the pathogen is required in order to achieve epidemic suppression in Iran.

Data: WHO weekly reported SARS-CoV-2 virus positive cases.