COVID-19 virus SARS-CoV-2

Epidemiological Development in Italy

Epidemiological development of COVID-19 in Italy throughout the pandemic between March 1, 2020 and September 12, 2021. The graph is expressed as the raw number of weekly reported positive cases. 

The COVID-19 epidemic in Italy exhibits characteristic profile observed in many European countries. Notice the characteristic relatively sharp incidence wave around November 15, 2020, then again a smaller peak on January 10, 2021 both peaks are shared with a number of other European countries such as Spain, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Germany, France and Norway just to mention a few. The latter peak was also observed in USA and Canada.

Interestingly, the COVID-19 incidence peak magnitude was seen to consistently decrease with time indicating a promising build up of global natural (herd) immunity within the Italian population. Of the Italy's population (60,5 million), 19% was exposed to the virus by November 15, 2020. The resulting population immune response together with Italian public health intervention measures was sufficient to eliminate the outbreak resulting in a steep incidence crash. Yet, the continuation of non-pharmaceutical interventions was not able to prevent the second peak of the second wave on January 10, 2021. By that time 38% of Italians were already exposed to the pathogen and began mounting their immune response. Their acquired resilience then resulted in much smaller third wave peaking at the end of August 2021. By that time 75% of the Italian population was already exposed and immune.

Data: WHO weekly reported SARS-CoV-2 virus positive cases.