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The COVID-19 epidemiological evolution throughout the pandemic in Sweden
between March 1, 2020 and October 3, 2021. The data is expressed as the
official number of positive cases per 100000 per Km2 of relevant
population density. By April 18, 2021 about 90% the Swedish population
(10,1 million) was exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Despite the implementation
of relatively light non-pharmaceutical interventions (primarily based on
recommendations rather than the use of enforcement based on declaration
of emergency) the Swedish development of COVID-19 epidemiology was not
much worse than that of other countries relying on strict often oppressive
and severely restraining public health intervention measures. Sweden shares
much similarity in the second COVID-19 pandemic wave profile with Germany,
yet Sweden enjoyed more favorable fatality rate than Germany.
The Swedish and German COVID-19 incidence profiles are highly and significantly
correlated.
The Swedish COVID-19 incidence profile is plotted
together with its corresponding infection fatality ratio (IFR) for the
pandemic between March 22, 2020 and June 6, 2021. At the beginning
of the pandemic the apparent COVID-19 mortalities appeared very high due
to a number of unrelated factors such as, the unfamiliarity with the novel
disease resulting in late diagnosis or misdiagnosis of COVID-19, lack of
initial testing (this artificially diminished the equation denominator
resulting in large mortality value) in addition to some initial mishandling
of severe cases due to overwhelming of the medical system. This region
of the graph (blue dots) by no means reflects the true morbidity of COVID-19.
The Swedish COVID-19 infection fatality rate
shows a typical scatter plot profile with consistent drop throughout the
epidemic as the Swedish population continues attaining its herd immunity
against SARS-CoV-2 virus. The Swedish IFR is comparable to COVID-19 related
mortality in Canada, i.e. consistently fluctuating around 0.2% and below.
Just for comparison, the IFR of a trivial seasonal flu has been estimated
by the WHO to fall at around 0.1%.
Data: WHO weekly reported SARS-CoV-2 virus
positive cases.
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