COVID-19 virus SARS-CoV-2

Epidemiological Profile of Sweden


The COVID-19 epidemiological evolution throughout the pandemic in Sweden between March 1, 2020 and October 3, 2021. The data is expressed as the official number of positive cases per 100000 per Km2 of relevant population density. By April 18, 2021 about 90% the Swedish population (10,1 million) was exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Despite the implementation of relatively light non-pharmaceutical interventions (primarily based on recommendations rather than the use of enforcement based on declaration of emergency) the Swedish development of COVID-19 epidemiology was not much worse than that of other countries relying on strict often oppressive and severely restraining public health intervention measures. Sweden shares much similarity in the second COVID-19 pandemic wave profile with Germany, yet Sweden enjoyed more favorable fatality rate than Germany.
Swedish and German secod wave profile similarity
The Swedish and German COVID-19 incidence profiles are highly and significantly correlated.

The Swedish COVID-19 incidence profile is plotted together with its corresponding infection fatality ratio (IFR) for the pandemic between March 22, 2020 and June 6, 2021. At the beginning of the pandemic the apparent COVID-19 mortalities appeared very high due to a number of unrelated factors such as, the unfamiliarity with the novel disease resulting in late diagnosis or misdiagnosis of COVID-19, lack of initial testing (this artificially diminished the equation denominator resulting in large mortality value) in addition to some initial mishandling of severe cases due to overwhelming of the medical system. This region of the graph (blue dots) by no means reflects the true morbidity of COVID-19.

The Swedish COVID-19 infection fatality rate shows a typical scatter plot profile with consistent drop throughout the epidemic as the Swedish population continues attaining its herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2 virus. The Swedish IFR is comparable to COVID-19 related mortality in Canada, i.e. consistently fluctuating around 0.2% and below. Just for comparison, the IFR of a trivial seasonal flu has been estimated by the WHO to fall at around 0.1%.

Data: WHO weekly reported SARS-CoV-2 virus positive cases.