COVID-19 virus SARS-CoV-2

Epidemiological Profile of The United Kingdom


The second wave of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom between August 2, 2020 and May 31, 2021 followed by a recent third wave between June 2021 and September 12, 2021. Data is expressed as the number of positive cases per 100000 per Km2 of significant population density. The British population (68 million) reached its 60% immunity threshold by February 21, 2021. SARS-CoV-2 variant 202012/01 (B.1.1.7) was first reported in UK on December 14, 2020. Since then it has reached 100% proportion of all confirmed positive cases in that country, yet the COVID-19 epidemiology continued to have quite favourable outcome till June 2021 when strict lockdowns were eased suggesting little effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the mitigation of COVID-19 crisis. The subsequent rise of incidence into a third wave despite of the British government's massive vaccination campaign casts shadow on the effectivenes of vaccination programs all over the world. The UK's incidence peak of January 10, 2021 was erroneously ascribed by the mainstream media to the appearance of the B.1.1.7 variant in that country. However, the COVID-19 incidence peaked on January 10, 2021 in numerous other nations as well. In other nations this peak was driven concurrently by many different strains of SARS-CoV-2 virus.

The second and third wave COVID-19 incidence profile in the UK plotted together with its corresponding Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR). 
The British COVID-19 mortality profile remained quite favourable throughout the epidemic despite moderate increase during the January 10, 2021 run up.

In addition, the UK's COVID-19 second wave epidemiology was strongly positively correlated to the second wave epidemiology profiles in other countries yet not reporting the 202012/01 (B.1.1.7) variant: 
Countries Correlation coeficient "r" Statistical significance
UK/USA 0.816 P < 0.001
UK/Canada 0.871 P < 0.001
UK/Germany 0.764 P < 0.001
UK/Czech Republic 0.707 P < 0.001
UK/Slovakia 0.793 P < 0.001
UK/Norway 0.822 P < 0.001

Data: WHO weekly reported SARS-CoV-2 virus positive cases.